A flawed study falsely stated that an increase in teen vaping was associated with an increase in teen smoking. The article was quietly corrected, but outraged headlines and calls for action are still highly visible on many websites without any reference to the correction.

In June 2019, David Hammond and others published a paper called “Prevalence of vaping and smoking among adolescents in Canada, England, and the United States: repeat national cross sectional surveys” in the British Medical Journal.

The Canadian Cancer Society stated: “The study, led by Professor David Hammond of the University of Waterloo, found that among those 16-19 years old, vaping increased by a stunning 74% from 2017 to 2018, from 8.4% to 14.6%.”

The CBC, Canada’s national state broadcaster, added: “And even more disturbing — cigarette smoking in teenagers appeared to be rising for the first time in 30 years.”

This led to a media firestorm and demands for urgent action, for example, from The Canadian Lung Association:

“This is clear evidence that the progress made in reducing youth smoking rates has stalled. These findings need to be a wake-up call for all of us,” says Terry Dean, president and CEO, of The Canadian Lung Association. “This is unacceptable and we must truly light a fire under our collective action to reverse this trend. We cannot allow decades of public education on the harms of tobacco to go to waste.”

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However, the data was severely flawed, and a correction was posted. If you study the information provided closely enough, it turns out that there was NO significant increase in youth smoking associated with the increase in vaping.

Clive Bates wrote a detailed post about the issues with the paper, entitled: “Canada takes a wrong turn after a flawed paper induces moral panic about youth vaping and smoking.” He states that ” The correction itself is completely uninformative. It merely points to a data supplementary file with no indication of the nature and materiality of the error. The abstract for the correction is empty. Yet the correction changes one of the most important conclusions of the paper.”

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That was in July 2020, but Hammond’s original article is still quoted on many websites without any reference to the correction. For example:

CBC (National state broadcaster)

“Teen vaping in Canada has taken a ‘worrisome’ turn”

“We have been trying to find ways why this data isn’t robust. We have not been able to find any reason,” said Hammond, a public health professor.​”

CTV (Major independent broadcaster)

“Number of vaping youth increased 74 per cent in a year: report“

“E-cigarettes are supposed to be for adult smokers who have been unable to quit (tobacco),” said Rob Cunningham, senior policy analyst at CCS.

“But the results of this new study regarding youth trends are of tremendous concern. Given the progress that has been made to reduce youth smoking, we must avoid a new generation of teenagers becoming addicted to nicotine through vaping products.”

The Heart and Stroke Foundation

“Study confirms epidemic e-cigarette rates and increase in tobacco use among youth
Decades of successful tobacco control policy in danger of going up in smoke“

“Products that were once described as “cigarettes on training wheels” could unfortunately be living up to their description.

Heart & Stroke is calling on governments to take decisive action and quickly strengthen regulations.”

The Canadian Lung Association:

“After decades of decline; tobacco once again butting into young lives“

The Canadian Lung Association is very concerned by the findings in the new study conducted by Dr. David Hammond from the University of Waterloo, published in the British Medical Journal.  The new study shows an alarming increase in the smoking and vaping rates among youth, signalling a clear need for immediate corrective action.

The Canadian Cancer Society

“Study finds dramatic 74% increase in youth vaping in Canada“

The Canadian Cancer Society (CCS) is calling for immediate government action to address a significant and troubling increase in youth vaping in Canada. The increase in rates was revealed in a new study published in the British Medical Journal.

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Many people still believe that there is a gateway effect and that teen vaping will lead to an increase in teen smoking, when in fact, the reverse is true. Teen smoking rates have been decreasing more rapidly since vaping became available as an alternative. Hammond’s article probably contributed significantly to this false belief.

Health Canada listened to the urgent calls for action from three of the big disease-related charities and implemented anti-vaping policies such as nicotine caps and increased taxation. For a while, they even contemplated a federal ban on flavoured products. Since June 2019, their vaping policy has been entirely focused on preventing youth vaping, with no effort to promote vaping as a safer alternative for adult nicotine users or as a way to quit smoking.

Even now, in January 2023, when Carolyn Bennett, Minister of Mental Health and Addiction and Associate Minister of Health, states that “Vaping products offer the 3.8 million Canadians who smoke a less harmful source of nicotine than tobacco products, and do help people to stop smoking,” Health Canada seems unable to use this information to drive public policy on vaping. It seems that so much work has been done to over-emphasize the extent and danger of teen vaping that it is politically difficult to support vaping as a lifeline for adult smokers when so many voters only see it as a danger to their children.

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Can anything be done to correct this situation?

The statements and comments on these websites were fair at the time that they were initially published, but they are no longer appropriate now that we know they were based on a flawed paper. They should be removed or prominently marked as out-of-date and no longer correct. Their screaming headlines should not be allowed no confuse people any longer.

I have contacted the websites of The Heart and Stroke Foundation, The Lung Association and The Canadian Cancer Society without any response. I have asked Prof Hammond if he would do the same, but as far as I know, he has not. Removing outdated and incorrect information from websites that the public would generally consider to be a reliable source of health information is a small but necessary step towards legitimizing vaping as a safer alternative for nicotine users and an effective way to quit smoking.

In the past, people said that ‘A Falsehood Is Halfway Round the World Before the Truth Has Got Its Boots On”. In modern times, an error is all around the world, is permanently embedded in cyberspace and can never be forgotten before truth has even noticed.